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Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 18, as Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.94 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.95 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.40 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 16% | Draw 23% | Slovan Liberec 60%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 43%, Slovan Liberec 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Slovan Liberec's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights