Dukla Praha 1-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slovan Liberec (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dukla Praha face Slovan Liberec.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dukla Praha host Slovan Liberec at Stadion Juliska in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slovan Liberec are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dukla Praha have won 0, Slovan Liberec 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Slovan Liberec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Slovan Liberec in-play tendencies (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 55% versus Slovan Liberec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 43% | Slovan Liberec 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.94 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.825 / defence 1.065 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.401 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.309. Slovan Liberec have an above-average attack strength of 1.401 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Dukla Praha games / 47 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 16% | Draw 23% | Slovan Liberec 60%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | Slovan Liberec 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 60% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 16% | Draw 23% | Slovan Liberec 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Dukla Praha 0.94 / Slovan Liberec 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.825 / def 1.065 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.401 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Slovan Liberec xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Dukla Praha 1 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 16% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 60% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec?
Record (3 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 1 | Slovan Liberec 2W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.82) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.6%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
16%
6.09
23%
4.26
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.89
1.95
Slovan Liberec xG
6.09
16%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
14%
7.05
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
2%
42.93
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.95 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dukla Praha's recent record stands at 9W 19D 21L from 49 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 15L across 49 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slovan Liberec by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dukla Praha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dukla Praha have managed 6W 8D 9L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 8W 6D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.57 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 9W 19D 21L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 20W 14D 15L in their last 49 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Slovan Liberec's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.13 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Dukla Praha or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Slovan Liberec won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
2
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Dukla Praha 1-1 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 61%, Slovan Liberec 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dukla Praha) and 52% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec in 35%; Slovan Liberec in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 48% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 52% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 18, as Dukla Praha and Slovan Liberec drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.94 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.95 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Slovan Liberec landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.40 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 16% | Draw 23% | Slovan Liberec 60%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 43%, Slovan Liberec 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovan Liberec arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.