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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Dukla Praha 0-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.88 xG and Slavia Praha 1.64 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.75 / defence 1.12 against Slavia Praha attack 1.32 / defence 0.91, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 19% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 54%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 40%, Slavia Praha 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (58 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (58 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights