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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 16, as Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.87 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.29 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dukla Praha beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.76 / defence 1.02 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 22% | Draw 34% | Sigma Olomouc 43%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 38%, Sigma Olomouc 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (50 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (50 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights