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Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Dukla Praha 1-3 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.07 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.48 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.75 / defence 1.23 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 27% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 46%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 52%, Sigma Olomouc 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights