Dukla Praha 1-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Dukla Praha welcome Sigma Olomouc to Stadion Juliska. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dukla Praha have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stadion Juliska — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sigma Olomouc stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sigma Olomouc — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dukla Praha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sigma Olomouc in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dukla Praha, 1 for Sigma Olomouc and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dukla Praha 48% and Sigma Olomouc 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 52% | Sigma Olomouc 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.07 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.751 / defence 1.232 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.012 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.185. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Dukla Praha games / 52 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 27% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 46%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 2.17. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 60% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 27% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Dukla Praha 1.07 / Sigma Olomouc 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.751 / def 1.232 | Sigma Olomouc attack 1.012 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sigma Olomouc xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Dukla Praha 1 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 27% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (1 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 0 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dukla Praha's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
27%
3.64
26%
3.84
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.55
1.48
Sigma Olomouc xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
15.92
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.48 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dukla Praha come into this having played 21 games, going 3W 5D 13L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dukla Praha's home form reads 3W 1D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sigma Olomouc's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.52 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc in 76%.
Last 21 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 3W 5D 13L in their last 21 games (0.67 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.00 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
2
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Dukla Praha 2-2 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dukla Praha at 60%, Sigma Olomouc at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Dukla Praha) and 50% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Dukla Praha's games and 70% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dukla Praha vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dukla Praha's matches and 50% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Dukla Praha and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Dukla Praha 1-3 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.07 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.48 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.75 / defence 1.23 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 27% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 46%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 52%, Sigma Olomouc 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sigma Olomouc arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.