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Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pardubice beat Dukla Praha 0-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.14 xG and Pardubice 1.21 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.75 / defence 1.01 against Pardubice attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 33% | Draw 31% | Pardubice 36%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 38%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Pardubice's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.87 PPG, Pardubice 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights