🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dukla Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha beat Pardubice 2-0 at Stadion Juliska, Relegation Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.32 xG and Pardubice 0.98 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against Pardubice attack 0.75 / defence 1.40, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 44% | Draw 28% | Pardubice 27%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 48%, Pardubice 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Pardubice's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.81 PPG, Pardubice 0.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dukla Praha win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights