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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Karviná edge out Dukla Praha 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karviná beat Dukla Praha 1-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.08 xG and Karviná 1.19 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.69 / defence 1.04 against Karviná attack 0.97 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 31% | Draw 33% | Karviná 36%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 38%, Karviná 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Karviná's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights