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Dukla Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FK Jablonec.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dukla Praha beat FK Jablonec 2-0 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.91 xG and FK Jablonec 1.28 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.66 / defence 1.12 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 25% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 43%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Dukla Praha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 38%, FK Jablonec 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (60 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (60 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Dukla Praha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights