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Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Dukla Praha 0-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.37 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.89 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 47% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 23%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 44%, Bohemians 1905 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dukla Praha's trading profile (41 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (41 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.98 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights