Dukla Praha 0-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dukla Praha at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Dukla Praha welcome Bohemians 1905 to Stadion Juliska. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 September 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Juliska, Dukla Praha have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Dukla Praha are significantly better at Stadion Juliska than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Dukla Praha) versus 1.30 (Bohemians 1905). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Dukla Praha, 1 for Bohemians 1905 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 1–3 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Dukla Praha in-play tendencies (41 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (41 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 56% versus Bohemians 1905 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 44% | Bohemians 1905 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.37 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.959 / defence 0.843 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.865 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.220. Data: 38 Dukla Praha games / 37 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 47% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 23%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 1905 4.35. Dukla Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dukla Praha at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dukla Praha 60% | Bohemians 1905 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 47% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Dukla Praha 1.37 / Bohemians 1905 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.959 / def 0.843 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.865 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Dukla Praha (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bohemians 1905 xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Dukla Praha 0 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 47% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dukla Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Record (2 meetings): Dukla Praha 1W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dukla Praha's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dukla Praha Win
47%
2.13
30%
3.32
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.26
0.89
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
6%
17.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 0.89 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dukla Praha come into this having played 41 games, going 8W 16D 17L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.22 PPG from 41 outings (13W 11D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dukla Praha on 0.98 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dukla Praha's home form reads 5W 7D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.02 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 8W 16D 17L in their last 41 games (0.98 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.22 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians 1905 have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dukla Praha
0
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 1, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 67%, Bohemians 1905 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dukla Praha) and 44% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Dukla Praha's games and 44% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dukla Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 44% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Dukla Praha 0-2 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.37 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.89 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dukla Praha fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 47% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 23%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 44%, Bohemians 1905 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (41 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (41 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dukla Praha 0.98 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.