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Prediction vindicated as Chrudim edge out Pardubice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chrudim beat Pardubice 1-0 at Stadion Za Vodojemem, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chrudim 1.55 xG and Pardubice 1.08 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chrudim attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Pardubice attack 0.79 / defence 1.34, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chrudim 48% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 26%, with Chrudim to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chrudim 0%, Pardubice 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Pardubice arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Chrudim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chrudim scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.