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Poisson model rates Chrudim at 48%, yet in-form Pardubice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chrudim vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Chrudim and Pardubice meet at Stadion Za Vodojemem in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 June 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Chrudim's overall Czech Liga record this term: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Chrudim have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Pardubice (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Pardubice's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Pardubice arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Chrudim have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Pardubice in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Chrudim 0W, Pardubice 1W, 0D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Pardubice winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chrudim 1.55 xG and Pardubice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chrudim attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Pardubice attack 0.785 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Chrudim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Chrudim games / 60 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chrudim 48% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 26%. Fair-value odds: Chrudim 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Pardubice 3.85. Chrudim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Chrudim as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pardubice (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chrudim if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

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