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Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Bohemians 1905 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Teplice beat Bohemians 1905 0-1 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.04 xG and Teplice 1.19 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.77 / defence 0.96 against Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 0.99, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 33% | Teplice 37%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 46%, Teplice 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Teplice's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG, Teplice 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights