Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Bohemians 1905, 1.30 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Bohemians 1905 3W, Sigma Olomouc 4W, 3D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Bohemians 1905 winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Sigma Olomouc 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Sigma Olomouc 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.55 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.932 / defence 0.919 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.972 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.316. Data: 31 Bohemians 1905 games / 31 Sigma Olomouc games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 46% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 29%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Sigma Olomouc 3.45. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 50% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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