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Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bohemians 1905.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sigma Olomouc beat Bohemians 1905 1-3 at Dolicek, Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.39 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.07 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Sigma Olomouc attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 43% | Draw 29% | Sigma Olomouc 28%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sigma Olomouc win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 44%, Sigma Olomouc 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.19 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights