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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 and Sigma Olomouc finished level at 2-2 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 10, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.87 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.76 xG, a combined 1.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.80 / defence 0.88 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.71 / defence 0.81, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 39% | Sigma Olomouc 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 45%, Sigma Olomouc 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.26 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights