🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Bohemians 1905 take on Sigma Olomouc.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Sigma Olomouc make the trip to Dolicek to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Bohemians 1905, 1.50 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Sigma Olomouc in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Bohemians 1905 2W, Sigma Olomouc 2W, 2D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus Sigma Olomouc 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 45% | Sigma Olomouc 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.87 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.799 / defence 0.883 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.707 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.211. Bohemians 1905's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Bohemians 1905 games / 39 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 34% | Draw 39% | Sigma Olomouc 27%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.94 | Draw 2.56 | Sigma Olomouc 3.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.63. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.63 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Sigma Olomouc's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 30% | Sigma Olomouc 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights