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Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Bohemians 1905 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plzen beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 0.88 xG and Plzen 1.59 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against Plzen attack 1.25 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 20% | Draw 27% | Plzen 53%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 48%, Plzen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Plzen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights