Bohemians 1905 1-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to Dolicek Stadium to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dolicek Stadium, Bohemians 1905 have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dolicek Stadium.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.70 for Mlada Boleslav. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bohemians 1905, 2 for Mlada Boleslav and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Mlada Boleslav 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 42% | Mlada Boleslav 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.58 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.878 / defence 0.704 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.921 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.246. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Bohemians 1905's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 0.704 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Bohemians 1905 games / 39 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 55% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 18%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Mlada Boleslav 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians 1905 (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Mlada Boleslav 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dolicek Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 55% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.58 / Mlada Boleslav 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.878 / def 0.704 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.921 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Mlada Boleslav xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Dolicek Stadium.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Bohemians 1905 1 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek Stadium.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 55% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (9 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 5 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bohemians 1905's attack at 0.88x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.92x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
55%
1.83
27%
3.67
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.39
0.81
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
4%
27.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.81 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians 1905's recent record stands at 14W 9D 18L from 41 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 13L across 41 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.37 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians 1905 have managed 7W 5D 8L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 6W 8D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.44 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 9D 18L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 14D 13L in their last 41 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.30 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 14 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 2W 4D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
5
Draws
2
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2026, when Bohemians 1905 1-0 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 35%, Mlada Boleslav 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Bohemians 1905) and 60% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 35% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 60% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians 1905 edge out Mlada Boleslav 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Mlada Boleslav 1-0 at Dolicek Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.58 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.81 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mlada Boleslav landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.88 / defence 0.70 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.92 / defence 1.31, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 55% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 18%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 42%, Mlada Boleslav 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.24 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.