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Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Bohemians 1905 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Bohemians 1905 1-2 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.13 xG and Hradec Králové 1.30 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against Hradec Králové attack 1.13 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 29% | Draw 35% | Hradec Králové 37%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 45%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.19 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights