Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové – Match Report

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Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bohemians 1905.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hradec Králové beat Bohemians 1905 0-3 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.35 xG and Hradec Králové 1.02 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.02 / defence 1.32 against Hradec Králové attack 0.66 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 26%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 51%, Hradec Králové 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hradec Králové's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights