Bohemians 1905 0-3 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Bohemians 1905 welcome Hradec Králové to Stadion Ďolíček. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 4 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadion Ďolíček — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.40 PPG versus Hradec Králové's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Hradec Králové 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hradec Králové trading profile (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 57% versus Hradec Králové 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 51% | Hradec Králové 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.35 xG and Hradec Králové 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.020 / defence 1.320 | Hradec Králové attack 0.662 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.166. Data: 46 Bohemians 1905 games / 46 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Hradec Králové 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 70% | Hradec Králové 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.35 / Hradec Králové 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.020 / def 1.320 | Hradec Králové attack 0.662 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hradec Králové xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 4 December 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 3 Hradec Králové.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 42% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Record (4 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bohemians 1905's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
42%
2.40
32%
3.08
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.37
1.02
Hradec Králové xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.02 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 14W 18D 19L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 18W 14D 19L from 51 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.18 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.15 PPG from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 5W 8D 13L from 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.06 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 18D 19L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 18W 14D 19L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Hradec Králové away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.15 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hradec Králové have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
2
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 54%, Hradec Králové 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bohemians 1905) and 31% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 35%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 38% of games; Hradec Králové in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 35% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 31% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Bohemians 1905 0-3 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.35 xG and Hradec Králové 1.02 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.02 / defence 1.32 against Hradec Králové attack 0.66 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 26%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Hradec Králové win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 51%, Hradec Králové 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.