🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Bohemians 1905 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FK Jablonec beat Bohemians 1905 0-1 at Dolicek, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG and FK Jablonec 1.15 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against FK Jablonec attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 37%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 49%, FK Jablonec 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FK Jablonec's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, FK Jablonec arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights