🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs FK Jablonec encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Dolicek plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 10 August 2025 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bohemians 1905 are significantly better at Dolicek than their overall form suggests.

FK Jablonec have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, FK Jablonec are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Across 8 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.

The historical record gives Bohemians 1905 a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 43% versus FK Jablonec 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 49% | FK Jablonec 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.05 xG and FK Jablonec 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.829 / defence 0.965 | FK Jablonec attack 0.948 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.257. Data: 33 Bohemians 1905 games / 33 FK Jablonec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 32% | FK Jablonec 37%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | FK Jablonec 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

Bohemians 1905 dominate the H2H record, yet FK Jablonec are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 1905 40% | FK Jablonec 70%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights