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Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Baník Ostrava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Slavia Praha beat Baník Ostrava 0-2 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG and Slavia Praha 1.64 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.17 / defence 1.03 against Slavia Praha attack 1.34 / defence 0.83, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 27% | Slavia Praha 42%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 43%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Slavia Praha's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights