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Stalemate at Baník Ostrava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Relegation Group - 1, as Baník Ostrava and Mlada Boleslav drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.14 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.53 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.88 / defence 1.10 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 27% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 45%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Mlada Boleslav 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.43 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights