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Baník Ostrava cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dukla Praha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baník Ostrava beat Dukla Praha 3-1 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 0.89 xG and Dukla Praha 0.91 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.70 / defence 0.99 against Dukla Praha attack 0.71 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 31% | Draw 37% | Dukla Praha 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Baník Ostrava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 41%, Dukla Praha 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Dukla Praha's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights