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Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Baník Ostrava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bohemians 1905 beat Baník Ostrava 0-2 at Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.52 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.98 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Baník Ostrava fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.78 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 22%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Bohemians 1905 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 42%, Bohemians 1905 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baník Ostrava's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bohemians 1905's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baník Ostrava 1.50 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights