Baník Ostrava 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Baník Ostrava (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Baník Ostrava face Bohemians 1905.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Baník Ostrava welcome Bohemians 1905 to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Bohemians 1905 have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Baník Ostrava, 1 for Bohemians 1905 and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bohemians 1905 in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baník Ostrava 50% versus Bohemians 1905 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 52% | Bohemians 1905 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.85 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.346 / defence 0.901 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.927 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.207. Baník Ostrava carry an above-average attack strength of 1.346 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Baník Ostrava games / 59 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 19%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 1905 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 60% | Bohemians 1905 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.85 / Bohemians 1905 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.346 / def 0.901 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.927 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Bohemians 1905 xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 56% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Record (7 meetings): Baník Ostrava 3W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Baník Ostrava's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Bohemians 1905's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.12
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.86
1.01
Bohemians 1905 xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
3%
32.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.01 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 33W 11D 20L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 17W 22D 25L from 64 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.84 PPG from 31 outings (17W 6D 8L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 9W 10D 12L from 31 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.03 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 33W 11D 20L in their last 64 games (1.72 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 22D 25L in their last 64 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.84 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Baník Ostrava or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baník Ostrava have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians 1905 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Baník Ostrava 0-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 48%, Bohemians 1905 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Baník Ostrava) and 48% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Baník Ostrava keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 55% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 48% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.85 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.01 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baník Ostrava fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bohemians 1905 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.35 / defence 0.90 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.93 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 56% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 19%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 52%, Bohemians 1905 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.