Artis 2-4 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Artis vs Mlada Boleslav encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Artis welcome Mlada Boleslav to Town Stadium Karvina. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 July 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Artis — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Artis haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Mlada Boleslav haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Mlada Boleslav's 1.60 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Artis's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 1.15 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.073 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 0 Artis games / 30 Mlada Boleslav games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Artis 29% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 44%. Fair-value odds: Artis 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Mlada Boleslav 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 29% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Artis 1.15 / Mlada Boleslav 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.073 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Artis xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Mlada Boleslav xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Artis vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Artis vs Mlada Boleslav?
Artis 2 - 4 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Artis vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Artis vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Artis vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 29% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Artis and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and Mlada Boleslav in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Artis (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.50 | L5 L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Artis vs Mlada Boleslav?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Artis's attack rating (0.85) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Artis's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
29%
3.50
27%
3.67
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Artis xG
Total xG
2.63
1.49
Mlada Boleslav xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
15.46
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Artis and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Artis and 1.49 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Artis have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. Artis haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L. Mlada Boleslav haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Mlada Boleslav are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Artis.
Goals in Recent Form
Artis are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.50 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 0%.
Defensively: Mlada Boleslav in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Pre-Season
Mlada Boleslav
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Artis or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Artis have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Artis
0
Draws
1
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Mlada Boleslav?
From 1 meetings on record, Artis have won 0, Mlada Boleslav have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Artis and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Artis 2-4 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Artis and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Artis's recent matches and 0% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Artis vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Artis's matches and 50% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Artis and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Artis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Artis 2-4 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Artis 1.15 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.49 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Artis beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Artis attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Artis 29% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 44%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Artis 100%, Mlada Boleslav 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Artis scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Mlada Boleslav scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.