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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Yunnan Yukun cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Tianjin Teda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun beat Tianjin Teda 2-0 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.58 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.54 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Tianjin Teda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.92 / defence 1.29 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 0.93, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 36%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 58%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Yunnan Yukun winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights