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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 38%, yet in-form Tianjin Teda provide a compelling counter-argument — this Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to face Yunnan Yukun in Super League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Yunnan Yukun's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.60 conceded. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Yunnan Yukun's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Tianjin Teda (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Tianjin Teda arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Tianjin Teda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Yunnan Yukun winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Yunnan Yukun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 77% and Tianjin Teda 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 58% | Tianjin Teda 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.58 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.916 / defence 1.291 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.854 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.399. Data: 26 Yunnan Yukun games / 56 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 38% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 36%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Tianjin Teda 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tianjin Teda (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 90% | Tianjin Teda 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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