🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Shandong Luneng 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun beat Shandong Luneng 3-2 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.67 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.31 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.51 / defence 1.25, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 27% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 52%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Yunnan Yukun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights