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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium to take on Yunnan Yukun. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.67 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.780 / defence 1.070 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.514 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.423. Yunnan Yukun's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shandong Luneng bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Yunnan Yukun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shandong Luneng have an above-average attack strength of 1.514 — the away xG of 2.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Yunnan Yukun games / 40 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 27% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 52%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 3.70 | Draw 4.76 | Shandong Luneng 1.92. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 2.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.97 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W • Shandong Luneng away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 2
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 27% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.67 / Shandong Luneng 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.780 / def 1.070 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.514 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
2.31
Shandong Luneng xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Yunnan Yukun 3 - 2 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 27% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 52% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Shandong Luneng in?
• Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W • Shandong Luneng away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | CS 2
What do the betting odds say about Yunnan Yukun vs Shandong Luneng?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture