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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.16 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.20 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.75 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 32% | Draw 34% | Qingdao Jonoon 34%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Yunnan Yukun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights