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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Yunnan Yukun edge out Henan Jianye 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun beat Henan Jianye 2-1 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.23 xG and Henan Jianye 1.22 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Henan Jianye attack 0.89 / defence 0.79, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 37% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 36%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights