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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Yunnan Yukun welcome Henan Jianye to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 June 2025 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Henan Jianye — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Henan Jianye's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.23 xG and Henan Jianye 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 0.925 / defence 1.027 | Henan Jianye attack 0.887 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.335. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 14 Yunnan Yukun games / 44 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 37% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 36%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Henan Jianye 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Yunnan Yukun at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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