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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Yunnan Yukun.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chengdu Better City beat Yunnan Yukun 1-5 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.66 xG and Chengdu Better City 2.03 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Chengdu Better City outscored their 2.03 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.15 / defence 1.20 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 31% | Draw 24% | Chengdu Better City 46%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 62%, Chengdu Better City 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights