Yunnan Yukun 1-5 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Yunnan Yukun welcome Chengdu Better City to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 August 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Yunnan Yukun — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yunnan Yukun's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Yunnan Yukun) versus 1.80 (Chengdu Better City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Yunnan Yukun register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Chengdu Better City in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Yunnan Yukun, 0 for Chengdu Better City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Yunnan Yukun in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 71% and Chengdu Better City 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 62% | Chengdu Better City 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.66 xG and Chengdu Better City 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.148 / defence 1.196 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.269 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.340. Chengdu Better City have an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Yunnan Yukun games / 51 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 31% | Draw 24% | Chengdu Better City 46%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Chengdu Better City 2.17. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 70% | Chengdu Better City 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 31% | Draw 24% | Chengdu Better City 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.66 / Chengdu Better City 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.148 / def 1.196 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.269 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Chengdu Better City xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City?
Yunnan Yukun 1 - 5 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 31% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City?
Record (1 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 0W | Draws 1 | Chengdu Better City 0W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Yunnan Yukun's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Chengdu Better City's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
31%
3.27
24%
4.20
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.69
2.03
Chengdu Better City xG
3.27
31%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
13%
7.64
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
4%
25.02
9%
11.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 2.03 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 8W 5D 8L from 21 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 3L across 21 games — 2.10 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yunnan Yukun heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 6W 2D 2L across 10 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.86 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 games (1.38 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 13W 5D 3L in their last 21 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 2.00 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Yunnan Yukun or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yunnan Yukun have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yunnan Yukun's record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Yunnan Yukun
1
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City?
From 4 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Yunnan Yukun at 70%, Chengdu Better City at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Yunnan Yukun and 70% for Chengdu Better City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Chengdu Better City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 60% of Chengdu Better City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 70% of Chengdu Better City's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Yunnan Yukun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Yunnan Yukun 1-5 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.66 xG and Chengdu Better City 2.03 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Chengdu Better City outscored their 2.03 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.15 / defence 1.20 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 31% | Draw 24% | Chengdu Better City 46%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 62%, Chengdu Better City 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.