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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.96 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.50 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.09 / defence 1.41 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 47% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 28%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 64%, Changchun Yatai 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Yunnan Yukun arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights