Yunnan Yukun 1-1 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yunnan Yukun at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Yunnan Yukun welcome Changchun Yatai to Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 August 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yunnan Yukun have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Yunnan Yukun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yunnan Yukun have posted 6W 2D 2L at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Yunnan Yukun are significantly better at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Yunnan Yukun 1.40 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Yunnan Yukun register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Changchun Yatai in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Yunnan Yukun, 0 for Changchun Yatai and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Yunnan Yukun in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yunnan Yukun 73% and Changchun Yatai 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yunnan Yukun 64% | Changchun Yatai 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yunnan Yukun 1.96 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.095 / defence 1.410 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.793 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.775 / away 1.340. Data: 22 Yunnan Yukun games / 52 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 47% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 28%. Fair-value odds: Yunnan Yukun 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Changchun Yatai 3.57. Yunnan Yukun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yunnan Yukun are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yunnan Yukun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Yunnan Yukun 80% | Changchun Yatai 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yunnan Yukun 47% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Yunnan Yukun 1.96 / Changchun Yatai 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Yunnan Yukun attack 1.095 / def 1.410 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.793 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.775 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Yunnan Yukun (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Yunnan Yukun xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Changchun Yatai xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai?
Yunnan Yukun 1 - 1 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Yunnan Yukun a 47% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Yunnan Yukun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai?
Record (1 meetings): Yunnan Yukun 0W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 0W.
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai in?
Yunnan Yukun (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yunnan Yukun's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Yunnan Yukun's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yunnan Yukun Win
47%
2.14
25%
3.94
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Yunnan Yukun xG
Total xG
3.46
1.50
Changchun Yatai xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
4%
25.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Yunnan Yukun and 1.50 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Yunnan Yukun's recent record stands at 8W 5D 9L from 22 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Yunnan Yukun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 15L across 22 games — 0.68 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Yunnan Yukun by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Yunnan Yukun have managed 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Yunnan Yukun are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 1W 1D 8L across 10 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yunnan Yukun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yunnan Yukun are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 0.82 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yunnan Yukun have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yunnan Yukun
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Yunnan Yukun have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 3D 15L in their last 22 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yunnan Yukun at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Yunnan Yukun's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yunnan Yukun at home: 2.00 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yunnan Yukun
2
Draws
0
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai?
From 2 meetings on record, Yunnan Yukun have won 0, Changchun Yatai have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when Yunnan Yukun 1-1 Changchun Yatai.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yunnan Yukun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Yunnan Yukun at 80%, Changchun Yatai at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Yunnan Yukun and 70% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yunnan Yukun home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yunnan Yukun play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Yunnan Yukun's games and 60% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yunnan Yukun vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Yunnan Yukun's matches and 70% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Yunnan Yukun have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yuxi Plateau Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Yunnan Yukun and Changchun Yatai drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yunnan Yukun 1.96 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.50 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Yunnan Yukun fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yunnan Yukun attack 1.09 / defence 1.41 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yunnan Yukun 47% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 28%, with Yunnan Yukun to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yunnan Yukun 64%, Changchun Yatai 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yunnan Yukun's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Yunnan Yukun arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Yunnan Yukun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.