Wuhan Three Towns 0-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 67%, yet in-form Wuhan Three Towns provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns host SHANGHAI SIPG at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium in Super League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Tuesday 25 June 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Wuhan Three Towns have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Wuhan Three Towns have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 3 for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Mar 2024, ended Wuhan Three Towns 1–3 SHANGHAI SIPG — a SHANGHAI SIPG win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 58% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 64% | SHANGHAI SIPG 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 0.92 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.763 / defence 0.925 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.756 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.382. Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. SHANGHAI SIPG bring a tight defence (rating 0.775, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Wuhan Three Towns's projected output down. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack rating of 1.756, which lifts their away xG to 2.25. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 45 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 45.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 13% | Draw 20% | SHANGHAI SIPG 67%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 7.44 | Draw 5.09 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.49. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (67%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wuhan Three Towns (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Three Towns's last 10 home games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 50% (last 10 home games) | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, matchday 16 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 June 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 13% | Draw 20% | SHANGHAI SIPG 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 0.92 / SHANGHAI SIPG 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.763 / def 0.925 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.756 / def 0.775 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
2.25
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Tuesday 25 June 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Super League fixture (matchday 16) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 13% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 67% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 0.76x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 45 games and SHANGHAI SIPG's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
13%
7.44
20%
5.09
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
3.16
2.25
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
7.44
13%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
11%
9.45
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
1%
70.31
27%
3.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 2.25 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 64 games, going 39W 12D 13L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 2.00 PPG from 64 outings (39W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Three Towns on 2.02 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 19W 6D 7L across their last 32 home games, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 2.03 points per game from their last 32 away games (20W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.81 scored and 0.86 conceded. Wuhan Three Towns's scoring rate against SHANGHAI SIPG's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs SHANGHAI SIPG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 39W 12D 13L in their last 64 games (2.02 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 11D 14L in their last 64 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.97 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG have won the most recent 8 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Apr 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG won SHANGHAI SIPG 4-0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Wuhan Three Towns
0
Draws
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 2, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Wuhan Three Towns 2-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 53%, SHANGHAI SIPG 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 56% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs SHANGHAI SIPG Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 56% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and SHANGHAI SIPG matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 64% of SHANGHAI SIPG's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wuhan Three Towns.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Wuhan Three Towns 0-2 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 0.92 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.25 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.76 / defence 0.93 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.76 / defence 0.78, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 13% | Draw 20% | SHANGHAI SIPG 67%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 64%, SHANGHAI SIPG 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 2.02 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.