Shanghai Shenhua 3-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia meet at Shanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 5W 2D 3L at Shanghai Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Meizhou Kejia away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Shanghai Shenhua, who have won 5 of the last 5 meetings against Meizhou Kejia — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The historical record gives Shanghai Shenhua a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 52% versus Meizhou Kejia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 38% | Meizhou Kejia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 1.72 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.266 / defence 0.688 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.875 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.380. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.688 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Shanghai Shenhua games / 45 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 58% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 17%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Meizhou Kejia 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shanghai Shenhua 50% | Meizhou Kejia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Jun 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 58% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 1.72 / Meizhou Kejia 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.266 / def 0.688 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.875 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Meizhou Kejia xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia?
Shanghai Shenhua 3 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 58% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (5 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 5W | Draws 0 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.88x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.00
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.55
0.83
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
3%
32.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.2 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.83 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 29W 18D 17L from 64 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 27L across 64 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Shanghai Shenhua against 1.30 for Meizhou Kejia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 16W 8D 8L from 32 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 7W 8D 17L across 32 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.33 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 29W 18D 17L in their last 64 games (1.64 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.75 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 6-1 on 26 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
0
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 8, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when Shanghai Shenhua 6-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 47%, Meizhou Kejia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 53% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Meizhou Kejia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 47% of Meizhou Kejia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 53% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Meizhou Kejia 3-0 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 1.72 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.83 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Meizhou Kejia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.27 / defence 0.69 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 58% | Draw 25% | Meizhou Kejia 17%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 38%, Meizhou Kejia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.64 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.