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Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Wuhan Three Towns.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-5 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.62 xG and Shandong Luneng 2.06 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng outscored their 2.06 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.85 / defence 1.21 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.19 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 31% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 48%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 52%, Shandong Luneng 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights