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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Meizhou Kejia defy the odds to beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Meizhou Kejia beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-2 at Wuhan Sports Centre, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.57 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 49% | Draw 27% | Meizhou Kejia 23%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Meizhou Kejia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 49%, Meizhou Kejia 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wuhan Three Towns 1.06 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights