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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Yunnan Yukun defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yunnan Yukun beat Tianjin Teda 0-1 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 2.04 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.35 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Yunnan Yukun attack 0.96 / defence 1.25, drawn from 41/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 24%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Yunnan Yukun win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights