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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Tianjin Teda and Yunnan Yukun meet at Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Tianjin Teda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 2.04 xG and Yunnan Yukun 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.937 / defence 0.977 | Yunnan Yukun attack 0.960 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.438. Yunnan Yukun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Tianjin Teda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Tianjin Teda games / 11 Yunnan Yukun games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 52% | Draw 24% | Yunnan Yukun 24%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Yunnan Yukun 4.17. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

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