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Last-gasp drama as Tianjin Teda snatch the points — Tianjin Teda 3-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tianjin Teda found a late winner to edge Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. It was 1-0 at the break, with 2 further goals after it. Scorers: Guilherme Schettine (26') · Xadas (90') · Ji Shengpan (90'). The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.36 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.13 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tianjin Teda beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 27% | Sichuan Jiuniu 31%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 52%, Sichuan Jiuniu 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tianjin Teda's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 76% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 76% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.28 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

In-Play Signals

Sichuan Jiuniu controlled the ball (64%). The model had leaned the other way, toward Tianjin Teda; and Tianjin Teda justified the model by winning without the ball. Tianjin Teda shot more often (14 to 13, 4 on target). The scoring opened before half-time (1-0 at the interval). 2 of the 3 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out. With the decisive goal arriving late, the fixture spent most of its length tracking closer to expectation than the final scoreline suggests.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics